The Xchange Blog

Q4 2018 The Most Important Earnings Season in a Decade?

This earnings season may be one of the most anticipated in the past 10 years. 2018 started out strong for stocks, and ended with the whimper of an almost across-the-board drawdown that has investors and traders asking “Is this it?”. Shortly after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act became law in late 2017, markets moved higher until the first gyrations of many for the year. As we start the new year, earnings season may provide some clue on what the future holds for the aging bull market. Below is some food for thought as outlined by FactSet.

Earnings Growth: For Q4 2018, the estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 12.4%. If 12.4% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the fifth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the index.

Earnings Revisions: On September 30, the estimated earnings growth rate for Q4 2018 was 16.6%. All eleven sectors have lower growth rates today (compared to September 30) due to downward revisions to EPS estimates.

Earnings Guidance: For Q4 2018, 72 S&P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 33 S&P 500 companies have issued positive EPS guidance.

Valuation: The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 14.2. This P/E ratio is below the 5-year average (16.4) and below the 10-year average (14.6).

Below is a table identifying the percentage of names in each index that is reporting, arranged by trading week. Following that table is a list of Top Ten Holdings for key indexes, along with their earnings announcement dates, and corresponding bold trades using Direxion Leveraged ETFs.


Source: Bloomberg.

 

Q4 Quarterly Earnings Calendar

(All index data as of 12/24/2018)

S&P 500 Index (SPXT)   S&P 400 Index (MID)
Top 10 Weights Ticker Weight in the index Earnings Release Date Top 10 Weights Ticker Weight in the index Earnings Release Date
MICROSOFT CORP MSFT UW 0.03692281 1/24/2019 ATMOS ENERGY CORP ATO UN 0.00767005 2/5/2019
APPLE INC AAPL UW 0.0334822 1/31/2019 TELEFLEX INC TFX UN 0.00746118 2/21/2019
AMAZON.COM INC AMZN UW 0.0273776 1/31/2019 DOMINO’S PIZZA INC DPZ UN 0.00689594 2/19/2019
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC-CL B BRK/B UN 0.01837181 2/25/2019 UGI CORP UGI UN 0.00671935 1/30/2019
JOHNSON & JOHNSON JNJ UN 0.01697173 1/22/2019 IDEX CORP IEX UN 0.00656307 1/28/2019
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO JPM UN 0.01547482 1/15/2019 ALLEGHANY CORP Y UN 0.00622192 2/20/2019
FACEBOOK INC-CLASS A FB UW 0.01527156 1/30/2019 STERIS PLC STE UN 0.00597469 1/30/2019
ALPHABET INC-CL C GOOG UW 0.01512704 1/31/2019 REINSURANCE GROUP OF AMERICA RGA UN 0.005934 1/28/2019
ALPHABET INC-CL A GOOGL UW 0.01484473 1/31/2019 PTC INC PTC UW 0.00589236 1/16/2019
EXXON MOBIL CORP XOM UN 0.01414772 2/1/2019 CAMDEN PROPERTY TRUST CPT UN 0.0057966 2/3/2019
Related Funds:

Related Funds:

 

Russell 2000® Index (RU20INTR) Russell 1000 Financial Services Index (RGUSFLA)
Top 10 Weights Ticker Weight in the index Earnings Release Date Top 10 Weights Ticker Weight in the index Earnings Release Date
INTEGRATED DEVICE TECH INC IDTI UW 0.00367878 1/28/2019 BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC-CL B BRK/B UN 0.08068249 2/25/2019
ETSY INC ETSY UW 0.00301616 2/26/2019 JPMORGAN CHASE & CO JPM UN 0.06791315 1/15/2019
FIVE BELOW FIVE UW 0.00291765 3/20/2019 VISA INC-CLASS A SHARES V UN 0.04793427 1/31/2019
IDACORP INC IDA UN 0.00280679 2/21/2019 BANK OF AMERICA CORP BAC UN 0.04620737 1/16/2019
HAEMONETICS CORP/MASS HAE UN 0.00277804 2/5/2019 WELLS FARGO & CO WFC UN 0.04165364 1/15/2019
CIENA CORP CIEN UN 0.00264361 3/5/2019 MASTERCARD INC – A MA UN 0.03546106 1/31/2019
PLANET FITNESS INC – CL A PLNT UN 0.00255777 2/21/2019 CITIGROUP INC C UN 0.02642309 1/14/2019
HUBSPOT INC HUBS UN 0.00248923 2/12/2019 PAYPAL HOLDINGS INC PYPL UW 0.0203425 1/30/2019
ONE GAS INC OGS UN 0.0024638 2/20/2019 AMERICAN TOWER CORP AMT UN 0.01505893 2/27/2019
LIVANOVA PLC LIVN UW 0.00241936 2/27/2019 US BANCORP USB UN 0.01467303 1/16/2019
Related Funds:

Related Funds:

Technology Select Sector Index (IXTTR) Health Care Select Sector Index (IXVTR)
Top 10 Weights Ticker Weight in the index Earnings Release Date Top 10 Weights Ticker Weight in the index Earnings Release Date
MICROSOFT CORP MSFT UW 0.18511185 1/24/2019 JOHNSON & JOHNSON JNJ UN 0.10990361 1/22/2019
APPLE INC AAPL UW 0.16786241 1/31/2019 PFIZER INC PFE UN 0.07776786 1/29/2019
VISA INC-CLASS A SHARES V UN 0.05436394 1/31/2019 UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC UNH UN 0.07334701 1/15/2019
INTEL CORP INTC UW 0.05085562 1/24/2019 MERCK & CO. INC. MRK UN 0.06093465 2/1/2019
CISCO SYSTEMS INC CSCO UW 0.04614569 2/13/2019 ABBVIE INC ABBV UN 0.04113766 1/25/2019
MASTERCARD INC – A MA UN 0.03987106 1/31/2019 MEDTRONIC PLC MDT UN 0.03761429 2/19/2019
ORACLE CORP ORCL UN 0.02918295 3/14/2019 ABBOTT LABORATORIES ABT UN 0.03758405 1/23/2019
ADOBE INC ADBE UW 0.02538033 3/14/2019 AMGEN INC AMGN UW 0.03712939 1/31/2019
BROADCOM INC AVGO UW 0.02506358 3/14/2019 ELI LILLY & CO LLY UN 0.03317859 2/13/2019
INTL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP IBM UN 0.02492024 1/22/2019 THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC INC TMO UN 0.02769216 1/30/2019
Related Funds:

Related Funds:

S&P Consumer Discretionary Index (IXYTR) S&P Consumer Staples Index (IXRTR)
Top 10 Weights Ticker Weight in the index Earnings Release Date Top 10 Weights Ticker Weight in the index Earnings Release Date
AMAZON.COM INC AMZN UW 0.21532583 1/31/2019 PROCTER & GAMBLE CO/THE PG UN 0.1454189 1/17/2019
HOME DEPOT INC HD UN 0.10135296 2/26/2019 COCA-COLA CO/THE KO UN 0.11782128 2/15/2019
MCDONALD’S CORP MCD UN 0.07473031 1/30/2019 PEPSICO INC PEP UW 0.10003713 2/15/2019
NIKE INC -CL B NKE UN 0.0497538 3/21/2019 WALMART INC WMT UN 0.08115902 2/19/2019
STARBUCKS CORP SBUX UW 0.04243564 1/24/2019 COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP COST UW 0.04572796 3/7/2019
BOOKING HOLDINGS INC BKNG UW 0.04237552 2/26/2019 ALTRIA GROUP INC MO UN 0.04482814 1/31/2019
LOWE’S COS INC LOW UN 0.03939657 2/27/2019 MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL INC-A MDLZ UW 0.04398705 1/30/2019
TJX COMPANIES INC TJX UN 0.02926085 2/27/2019 WALGREENS BOOTS ALLIANCE INC WBA UW 0.04030901 3/28/2019
GENERAL MOTORS CO GM UN 0.02408998 2/6/2019 PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL PM UN 0.03977056 2/7/2019
TARGET CORP TGT UN 0.01811648 3/5/2019 COLGATE-PALMOLIVE CO CL UN 0.03884536 1/25/2019
Related Funds:

Related Funds:

S&P Industrials Select Sector Index (IXITR) S&P Energy Select Sector Index (IXETR)
Top 10 Weights Ticker Weight in the index Earnings Release Date Top 10 Weights Ticker Weight in the index Earnings Release Date
BOEING CO/THE BA UN 0.08588197 1/30/2019 EXXON MOBIL CORP XOM UN 0.22709021 2/1/2019
3M CO MMM UN 0.05777793 1/29/2019 CHEVRON CORP CVX UN 0.19244451 2/1/2019
UNION PACIFIC CORP UNP UN 0.05195839 1/24/2019 CONOCOPHILLIPS COP UN 0.06621255 1/31/2019
HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC HON UN 0.05135407 1/31/2019 SCHLUMBERGER LTD SLB UN 0.04560063 1/18/2019
UNITED TECHNOLOGIES CORP UTX UN 0.04631139 1/23/2019 OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP OXY UN 0.04429991 2/12/2019
CATERPILLAR INC CAT UN 0.03786568 1/28/2019 EOG RESOURCES INC EOG UN 0.04282885 2/26/2019
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B UPS UN 0.03499715 1/31/2019 MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP MPC UN 0.03813414 1/31/2019
GENERAL ELECTRIC CO GE UN 0.03364549 1/31/2019 PHILLIPS 66 PSX UN 0.0342345 2/8/2019
LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP LMT UN 0.03358463 1/28/2019 VALERO ENERGY CORP VLO UN 0.02986793 1/31/2019
CSX CORP CSX UW 0.0258468 1/16/2019 KINDER MORGAN INC KMI UN 0.02860166 1/16/2019
Related Funds:

Related Funds:

S&P Utilities Select Sector Index (IXUTR) Dynamic Pharmaceutical Intellidex Index (DZRTR)
Top 10 Weights Ticker Weight in the index Earnings Release Date Top 10 Weights Ticker Weight in the index Earnings Release Date
NEXTERA ENERGY INC NEE UN 0.11666714 1/25/2019 ABBVIE INC ABBV US 0.05546952 1/25/2019
DUKE ENERGY CORP DUK UN 0.08744914 2/14/2019 ELI LILLY & CO LLY US 0.05394618 2/13/2019
DOMINION ENERGY INC D UN 0.06882922 1/3/2019 MERCK & CO. INC. MRK US 0.05343889 2/1/2019
SOUTHERN CO/THE SO UN 0.06493958 2/20/2019 PFIZER INC PFE US 0.05281432 1/29/2019
EXELON CORP EXC UN 0.06188821 2/6/2019 ABBOTT LABORATORIES ABT US 0.05269038 1/23/2019
AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER AEP UN 0.0529937 1/24/2019 AMGEN INC AMGN US 0.05218881 1/31/2019
SEMPRA ENERGY SRE UN 0.04272868 2/26/2019 GILEAD SCIENCES INC GILD US 0.05136889 2/5/2019
PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GP PEG UN 0.03696466 2/22/2019 JOHNSON & JOHNSON JNJ US 0.0499163 1/22/2019
XCEL ENERGY INC XEL UW 0.03658097 1/31/2019 REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS REGN US 0.03041565 2/7/2019
CONSOLIDATED EDISON INC ED UN 0.03480075 2/14/2019 AMPHASTAR PHARMACEUTICALS IN AMPH US 0.03028896 3/11/2019
Related Funds:

Related Funds:

S&P Retail Select Industry Index (SPSIRETR) S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index (SPSIBITR)
Top 10 Weights Ticker Weight in the index Earnings Release Date Top 10 Weights Ticker Weight in the index Earnings Release Date
PETMED EXPRESS INC PETS UW 0.01245922 1/22/2019 TESARO INC TSRO UW 0.01562395 2/26/2019
LITHIA MOTORS INC-CL A LAD UN 0.01240656 2/13/2019 ABBVIE INC ABBV UN 0.01551089 1/25/2019
DSW INC-CLASS A DSW UN 0.01238574 3/12/2019 LIGAND PHARMACEUTICALS LGND UQ 0.01505842 2/20/2019
AUTONATION INC AN UN 0.01230831 1/31/2019 NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES INC NBIX UW 0.01488241 2/12/2019
PENSKE AUTOMOTIVE GROUP INC PAG UN 0.01226888 2/7/2019 IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS INC IONS UW 0.01478297 2/26/2019
NUTRISYSTEM INC NTRI UW 0.01210709 2/25/2019 GILEAD SCIENCES INC GILD UW 0.01478204 2/5/2019
PARTY CITY HOLDCO INC PRTY UN 0.01202333 3/8/2019 UNITED THERAPEUTICS CORP UTHR UW 0.01473986 2/21/2019
FOOT LOCKER INC FL UN 0.0119986 3/1/2019 AMGEN INC AMGN UW 0.01472996 1/31/2019
GROUP 1 AUTOMOTIVE INC GPI UN 0.01195274 2/7/2019 LOXO ONCOLOGY INC LOXO UQ 0.01432669 2/28/2019
CHICO’S FAS INC CHS UN 0.01193003 2/27/2019 FIBROGEN INC FGEN UW 0.01431566 2/27/2019
Related Funds:

Related Funds:

S&P Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Index (SPSIOP) S&P Regional Banks Select Industry Index (SPSIRBKT)
Top 10 Weights Ticker Weight in the index Earnings Release Date Top 10 Weights Ticker Weight in the index Earnings Release Date
CABOT OIL & GAS CORP COG UN 0.02096872 2/22/2019 BANK OZK OZK UW 0.01746731 1/3/2019
VALERO ENERGY CORP VLO UN 0.02080509 1/31/2019 PACWEST BANCORP PACW UW 0.01705912 1/17/2019
EQT CORP EQT UN 0.02034715 2/7/2019 WESTERN ALLIANCE BANCORP WAL UN 0.01704822 1/24/2019
PBF ENERGY INC-CLASS A PBF UN 0.02028363 2/14/2019 SYNOVUS FINANCIAL CORP SNV UN 0.01696091 1/15/2019
DIAMONDBACK ENERGY INC FANG UW 0.02023704 2/12/2019 FIFTH THIRD BANCORP FITB UW 0.01693883 1/22/2019
PHILLIPS 66 PSX UN 0.02013434 2/8/2019 TEXAS CAPITAL BANCSHARES INC TCBI UW 0.01690085 1/23/2019
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP MPC UN 0.01997414 1/31/2019 REGIONS FINANCIAL CORP RF UN 0.01682737 1/18/2019
CNX RESOURCES CORP CNX UN 0.01980473 1/29/2019 PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP PNC UN 0.0167525 1/16/2019
CONOCOPHILLIPS COP UN 0.01967216 1/31/2019 COMERICA INC CMA UN 0.01671102 1/16/2019
CHEVRON CORP CVX UN 0.01953503 2/1/2019 SVB FINANCIAL GROUP SIVB UW 0.01669629 1/24/2019
Related Funds:

Related Funds:

MSCI US REIT Index (RMS G) PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (XSOX)
Top 10 Weights Ticker Weight in the index Earnings Release Date Top 10 Weights Ticker Weight in the index Earnings Release Date
SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC SPG UN 0.06485886 1/31/2019 BROADCOM INC AVGO UW 0.0932452 3/14/2019
PROLOGIS INC PLD UN 0.04698091 1/22/2019 QUALCOMM INC QCOM UW 0.08536411 1/30/2019
PUBLIC STORAGE PSA UN 0.04022844 2/20/2019 INTEL CORP INTC UW 0.08252027 1/24/2019
EQUINIX INC EQIX UW 0.03507134 2/13/2019 TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC TXN UW 0.08243138 1/22/2019
WELLTOWER INC WELL UN 0.03310332 2/24/2019 NVIDIA CORP NVDA UW 0.07090056 2/7/2019
EQUITY RESIDENTIAL EQR UN 0.03134708 1/29/2019 TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR-SP ADR TSM UN 0.0434752 1/17/2019
AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC AVB UN 0.03103799 1/31/2019 ANALOG DEVICES INC ADI UW 0.04068086 2/27/2019
DIGITAL REALTY TRUST INC DLR UN 0.02731227 2/17/2019 XILINX INC XLNX UW 0.04026594 1/23/2019
VENTAS INC VTR UN 0.02721866 2/7/2019 NXP SEMICONDUCTORS NV NXPI UW 0.03795033 2/6/2019
REALTY INCOME CORP O UN 0.02311278 2/21/2019 LAM RESEARCH CORP LRCX UW 0.03648504 1/23/2019
Related Funds:

Related Funds:

Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTTR) Dow Jones U.S. Select Aerospace & Defense Index (DJSASDT)
Top 10 Weights Ticker Weight in the index Earnings Release Date Top 10 Weights Ticker Weight in the index Earnings Release Date
FEDEX CORP FDX UN 0.10752327 3/19/2019 BOEING CO/THE BA UN 0.1124442 1/30/2019
NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP NSC UN 0.09823831 1/23/2019 UNITED TECHNOLOGIES CORP UTX UN 0.08270009 1/23/2019
UNION PACIFIC CORP UNP UN 0.09070524 1/24/2019 LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP LMT UN 0.07029082 1/28/2019
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B UPS UN 0.06474941 1/31/2019 RAYTHEON COMPANY RTN UN 0.05975651 1/24/2019
KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN KSU UN 0.0639926 1/18/2019 GENERAL DYNAMICS CORP GD UN 0.05846896 1/23/2019
LANDSTAR SYSTEM INC LSTR UW 0.06373332 1/31/2019 NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP NOC UN 0.05742027 1/31/2019
HUNT (JB) TRANSPRT SVCS INC JBHT UW 0.06236686 1/17/2019 TRANSDIGM GROUP INC TDG UN 0.03792197 2/5/2019
C.H. ROBINSON WORLDWIDE INC CHRW UW 0.05614419 1/29/2019 HARRIS CORP HRS UN 0.03690636 1/30/2019
UNITED CONTINENTAL HOLDINGS UAL UW 0.05614419 1/22/2019 L3 TECHNOLOGIES INC LLL UN 0.03458842 1/24/2019
EXPEDITORS INTL WASH INC EXPD UW 0.04469391 2/19/2019 TEXTRON INC TXT UN 0.0317562 1/24/2019
Related Funds:

Related Funds:

ISE Natural Gas Index (FUMTR) Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Builders Index (DJSHMBT)
Top 10 Weights Ticker Weight in the index Earnings Release Date Top 10 Weights Ticker Weight in the index Earnings Release Date
CABOT OIL & GAS CORP COG UN 0.06856204 2/22/2019 DR HORTON INC DHI UN 0.13238031 1/25/2019
CONCHO RESOURCES INC CXO UN 0.05094726 2/19/2019 LENNAR CORP-A LEN UN 0.13098533 1/9/2019
CIMAREX ENERGY CO XEC UN 0.04952751 2/13/2019 NVR INC NVR UN 0.09350203 1/24/2019
EQT CORP EQT UN 0.04751019 2/7/2019 PULTEGROUP INC PHM UN 0.07548645 1/29/2019
MURPHY OIL CORP MUR UN 0.0460271 1/30/2019 TOLL BROTHERS INC TOL UN 0.0493008 2/26/2019
NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO NFG UN 0.04367938 1/31/2019 HOME DEPOT INC HD UN 0.04420569 2/26/2019
NOBLE ENERGY INC NBL UN 0.04306232 2/19/2019 LOWE’S COS INC LOW UN 0.03299512 2/27/2019
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES INC/OK CLR UN 0.04091069 2/20/2019 SHERWIN-WILLIAMS CO/THE SHW UN 0.02511163 1/24/2019
RANGE RESOURCES CORP RRC UN 0.03907427 2/26/2019 TAYLOR MORRISON HOME CORP-A TMHC UN 0.02164128 2/6/2019
DEVON ENERGY CORP DVN UN 0.03629459 2/19/2019 KB HOME KBH UN 0.01886533 1/9/2019
Related Funds:

Related Funds:

 

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