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By The Numbers (BTN) is a weekly email publication designed for investment professionals who are looking for new, pertinent, and timely facts  timely facts related to the economy, politics, financial markets, and sports. You will find it beneficial as a source of quick facts and data from the investment world that are great for phone conversations, client presentations, and seminars.

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By The Numbers – February 11, 2018

  • HAVE THEY CHANGED THEIR MIND? – The Federal Reserve’s statement following their 1/30/19 meeting suggested to bond market watchers that their next interest rate move could be “down” instead of “up.” The shortest span between the end of a rate-tightening cycle (i.e., raising rates) and the first Fed easing (i.e., cutting rates) in the last 30 years was just 3 meetings over 5 months in 1995, i.e., 2/01/95 rate hike to a 7/06/95 rate cut. The last Fed rate hike took place on 12/19/18 (source: Federal Reserve).                           
  • HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE – Since 1950, there have been 60 different 10-year periods (i.e., the 10-years from 1950-59, 1951-60, 1952-61, . . . 2009-2018). The S&P 500 index produced an average annual total return of less than +7% during 15 of the 60 decade-long periods (25% of the time). 19 of the 60 periods (32% of the time) resulted in an average annual total return of at least +14%. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).    
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Please note that BTN is a copyrighted publication. Reproduction prohibited without express permission. Copyright © 2017, Michael A. Higley. All rights reserved. Email: mick.higley@mahbtn.com for more information about the information contained in this publication.